Some volcanoes roar before they erupt. Others whisper—until it’s too late. Now scientists may finally know why.
Key Points at a Glance
- New model reveals internal conditions behind stealthy eruptions
- Veniaminof volcano in Alaska erupts with little to no warning
- Warm host rock and low magma flow help mask eruption signals
- Advanced sensors and machine learning could improve early detection
In the shadowy world of volcano monitoring, stealthy eruptions are the stuff of nightmares. These sudden explosions can disrupt air traffic, damage infrastructure, and threaten nearby communities—all without the usual warning signs like ground swelling or tremors. Now, a study of Alaska’s Veniaminof volcano, published in Frontiers in Earth Science, has cracked the code behind this deadly quiet.
Located in the remote Aleutian Arc, Veniaminof is no stranger to activity. It has erupted 13 times since 1993, but only two of those eruptions gave scientists enough heads-up to issue alerts. One explosion in 2021 wasn’t detected until three days after it had started.
“Veniaminof is a case study in how a volcano can appear quiet while still being primed to erupt,” explains Dr. Yuyu Li, the study’s lead author from the University of Illinois. The team combined years of monitoring data with advanced modeling to test how different underground conditions influence surface warning signs. Their conclusion? It’s all about internal stealth.
Volcanoes typically provide clues before erupting because of magma pushing up into underground chambers. But if that magma enters slowly into a small reservoir surrounded by warm rock, the earth may show almost no surface reaction. The heat makes the surrounding rock more pliable, preventing it from cracking in ways that would produce seismic activity or cause surface deformation.
The team simulated dozens of eruption scenarios using different chamber sizes, magma flow rates, and reservoir shapes. They found stealthy eruptions occurred when all the right (or wrong) conditions lined up: low magma flow, small and warm magma chambers, and deep placement. Under these conditions, the volcano can be fully pressurized and ready to blow—but no one sees it coming.
“It’s not that the volcano isn’t talking—it’s whispering in frequencies and signals we’re not equipped to hear,” says Li. To better eavesdrop on these quiet threats, scientists recommend deploying high-precision borehole tiltmeters, strainmeters, and even fiber optic sensors, combined with satellite monitoring. Machine learning also shows promise in detecting subtle changes that traditional methods miss.
Importantly, Veniaminof isn’t alone. Other stealthy volcanoes like Stromboli (Italy), Popocatépetl (Mexico), and Merapi (Indonesia) also lie close to major cities or air traffic routes. Understanding the internal geometry and temperature conditions of these volcanoes could help scientists identify which ones are ticking quietly—and dangerously—beneath the surface.
“This is a new era of volcano forecasting,” says Li. “By combining real-time observations with nuanced modeling, we can begin to shine a light on these dark horses of geology.”
Source: Frontiers in Earth Science
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