A new study reveals a troubling reality behind America’s energy transition: despite booming investments in renewables, fossil fuel production continues untouched.
Key Points at a Glance
- Study shows no link between growth in renewable energy and reduction in fossil fuel production in the U.S.
- Data from 33 fossil-fuel-producing states analyzed over 23 years (1997–2020)
- Fossil fuel output largely tied to fixed state-level factors like resource endowment
- Current renewable energy policies may be insufficient without direct fossil fuel limits
- Researchers urge stronger policy tools, including carbon taxes and production caps
The prevailing narrative in the fight against climate change goes something like this: ramp up renewable energy, and fossil fuels will decline in turn. But what if that assumption is wrong?
A sobering new study by Ryan Thombs, assistant professor of rural sociology at Penn State, suggests exactly that. Published in the Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, the research draws from more than two decades of data — and comes to a stark conclusion: increasing renewable energy production in the United States has not led to a corresponding decline in fossil fuel output.
Thombs analyzed per capita production data from 1997 to 2020 across 33 states that actively produce fossil fuels, comparing it with per capita renewable energy generation. The verdict was clear — no statistically significant relationship. In essence, the rise of wind turbines and solar panels has not slowed the pumping of oil or the mining of coal.
“Many assume that adding renewables naturally leads to a reduction in fossil fuels,” Thombs explained. “But the data tells a different story. Renewable energy appears to be added on top of fossil fuel energy, not in place of it.”
The findings reveal a deeper challenge in America’s energy transition. More than 96% of the variation in fossil fuel production between states was attributed to fixed state-level characteristics — such as the presence of natural resource deposits. States rich in oil, gas, or coal simply keep extracting them, regardless of how many solar panels or wind farms are built within their borders.
This has significant implications for climate policy. According to the United Nations, fossil fuels are responsible for over 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90% of carbon dioxide emissions. Transitioning away from fossil fuels is essential to averting catastrophic climate scenarios — but as this study suggests, renewables alone won’t do it.
“Policy needs to go further,” said Thombs. “If we want to curb fossil fuel production, we need tools that do so directly — carbon taxes, production caps, or even leaving resources in the ground. Hoping that renewables will push fossil fuels out of the market on their own may not be realistic, at least not in the current U.S. context.”
Thombs employed multiple modeling approaches to validate his conclusions and emphasized that while his findings apply specifically to the U.S., the study raises broader questions about the global energy transition. If one of the world’s largest economies can’t make renewables displace fossil fuels, what does that mean for the rest of the planet?
The timing of the study also matters. The period analyzed — 1997 to 2020 — encompasses major milestones in renewable energy development. It was during these years that solar and wind moved from niche technologies to mainstream power sources. Today, they account for the largest share of new electricity generation. But instead of replacing fossil fuels, they’ve largely supplemented them.
One explanation lies in the political economy of energy. Fossil fuels and renewables often coexist geographically. In many states, the same regions that install wind turbines also expand fracking operations or open new natural gas wells. Local economic dependence on fossil fuels, coupled with regulatory inertia, makes divestment difficult.
Still, Thombs isn’t entirely pessimistic. He acknowledges the possibility of renewables eventually crowding out fossil fuels — but only under more aggressive policy regimes. “As the political and regulatory landscape evolves, particularly with climate-conscious legislation and state-level initiatives, we might see different dynamics in the future,” he noted.
For now, though, the message is sobering: we cannot assume that green energy growth equals fossil fuel decline. Real decarbonization will require more than technology — it demands political will, economic restructuring, and regulatory boldness.
Source: Penn State News
