Children born today are on track to live through more climate extremes than any generation before them—unless we act now to halt global warming, a new study in *Nature* warns.
Key Points at a Glance
- By 2100, 92% of children born in 2020 could face unprecedented heatwaves if warming reaches 3.5°C.
- Keeping warming under 1.5°C could protect 654 million children from extreme climate exposure.
- The most socioeconomically vulnerable children face the highest climate risk.
- Younger generations will face significantly more heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires than older ones.
- Urgent global action is needed ahead of COP30 to prevent this generational injustice.
If you were born in 2020, the planet you inherit will be hotter, harsher, and filled with more environmental hazards than any before. A sobering new study led by climate scientists from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel reveals that, under current global climate policies, today’s youth are likely to experience unprecedented lifetime exposure to extreme weather events—including searing heatwaves, failing crops, river floods, wildfires, and tropical cyclones.
Under a future where global temperatures climb by 3.5°C by the year 2100, 92% of children born in 2020 will be exposed to a number of heatwaves never before experienced in recorded human history. That equates to 111 million children globally. But it’s not just a matter of heat: hundreds of millions of children will also face rising risks of crop failures, devastating droughts, and weather-induced displacement—especially in regions already grappling with poverty and limited infrastructure.
The study draws on climate model projections and detailed demographic data to track the impact of climate extremes across generations and geographies. “In 2021, we already showed that children would face a disproportionate rise in extreme weather,” said Professor Wim Thiery, senior author of the study. “Now, we’ve gone a step further and quantified just how far outside historical experience their lifetimes will stretch.”
This concept—what the team calls “living an unprecedented life”—means a child will face more extreme weather than 99.99% of any generation would have experienced in a pre-industrial climate. And it isn’t a distant future concern. Even under a scenario that limits global warming to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target, over half of children born in 2020 will still face unprecedented lifetime heat exposure.
What’s particularly striking is the generational injustice revealed by the data. A child born in 2020 is many times more likely to face climate extremes than someone born in 1960. The gap grows dramatically with higher warming scenarios. For heatwaves in particular, children born after 1980 are increasingly exposed as climate change accelerates.
Even more concerning is the unequal distribution of these risks. Children in tropical regions and those with high socioeconomic vulnerability are projected to suffer the worst effects. Under current climate policies, 95% of the most vulnerable children will face unprecedented heatwaves—compared to 78% among the least vulnerable. This stark disparity emphasizes that climate change is not only a scientific crisis but a moral one.
“There is still hope, but only if we act urgently and ambitiously,” said Inger Ashing, CEO of Save the Children International. “This research shows how today’s children bear the brunt of a crisis they didn’t cause. We must put them at the center of our climate response.”
With COP30 on the horizon in Brazil, world leaders are under renewed pressure to submit stronger climate commitments. Without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, warming could surpass 2.7°C within this century—placing nearly every child born today on a trajectory toward a life dominated by weather extremes.
The numbers are staggering: if temperatures climb to 3.5°C, over 1.5 billion children aged 5–18 in 2025 will face unprecedented heat exposure. Crop failures could affect 431 million; wildfires, 147 million; droughts, 116 million; and floods, 191 million. These are not abstract statistics—they represent futures defined by instability, loss, and hardship.
Published in Nature, the study is the result of a collaboration between researchers from VUB, Environment and Climate Change Canada, KU Leuven, the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, and ETH Zurich. Their findings are backed by a new report from Save the Children titled “Born into the Climate Crisis,” further underscoring the stakes for the youngest among us.
As emissions continue to rise and the 1.5°C limit inches closer, the message from scientists is clear: the climate crisis is here, and it is generational. What we choose to do now will shape not just the environment, but the lives of billions of children.
Source: Vrije Universiteit Brussel
