The UK Met Office reports that 2024 saw the fastest-ever annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, raising urgent concerns over global climate goals.
Key Points at a Glance
- Sharp CO2 Increase: Atmospheric CO2 levels at Mauna Loa Observatory spiked by 3.58 ppm in 2024, surpassing all previous records.
- Drivers of the Surge: Fossil fuel burning, weakened natural carbon sinks, and exceptional wildfires contributed significantly to the rise.
- Dire Implications for Climate Goals: The rapid increase threatens efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
- Potential Slowdown in 2025: A transition to La Niña could temporarily bolster natural carbon absorption, offering a brief respite.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels in 2024 grew at the fastest rate ever recorded, according to data released by the UK Met Office. The sharp rise—driven by fossil fuel combustion, severe wildfires, and diminished natural carbon absorption—has raised alarms among climate scientists. The findings underscore the urgent need for global action to curb emissions.
Measurements from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, part of the long-standing Keeling Curve dataset, revealed a dramatic 3.58 parts per million (ppm) increase in atmospheric CO2 last year. This exceeded the Met Office’s forecast of 2.84 ppm and surpassed even its highest estimate of 3.38 ppm.
“Satellite measurements also showed a very large rise across the globe,” stated the Met Office, “due to record-high emissions magnified by weaker natural carbon sinks—such as tropical forests—and unprecedented wildfires.”
The Keeling Curve, which has tracked atmospheric CO2 concentrations since 1958, is the longest-running dataset of its kind and a critical indicator of the planet’s climate health.
The dramatic rise in CO2, alongside other greenhouse gases like methane, contributed to record-breaking global temperatures in 2024. According to Copernicus, the European Union’s climate monitor, the two-year average temperature for 2023 and 2024 breached the 1.5°C threshold established in the Paris Agreement. While this does not yet signify a permanent violation of the target—which is assessed over decades—it highlights the increasing likelihood of surpassing it in the near future.
Complex Causes Behind the Increase
The unprecedented CO2 growth in 2024 can be attributed to a combination of human and natural factors:
- Fossil Fuel Combustion: High levels of emissions from burning coal, oil, and gas remain the primary driver.
- Weakened Natural Carbon Sinks: Tropical forests, which absorb CO2, were less effective due to higher temperatures and deforestation.
- Devastating Wildfires: Fires released significant amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, further compounding the problem.
Looking ahead, scientists project a slight cooling in 2025, potentially allowing natural carbon sinks to recover. Richard Betts, who led the Met Office forecast, pointed to the transition to La Niña, which may enable forests to absorb more carbon.
However, Betts cautioned that this would only provide temporary relief: “Stopping global warming requires the buildup of greenhouse gases in the air to come to a complete halt and then start to reduce.”
The findings emphasize the critical importance of global climate action. Immediate and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are essential to preventing catastrophic warming. Policymakers and nations must accelerate efforts to transition to renewable energy sources, protect and restore natural carbon sinks, and mitigate the impacts of climate change.
The Met Office’s data serves as a stark reminder of the high stakes in the fight against climate change. As Betts summarized, “Every year of inaction makes it that much harder to achieve our climate goals.”
