One small mutation. That’s all it could take for a bat virus closely related to MERS to leap into humans — and possibly ignite the next global pandemic.
Key Points at a Glance
- HKU5 bat viruses are just a few mutations away from infecting humans
- These viruses use the same ACE2 receptor as SARS-CoV-2 but are currently limited to bats
- Cross-species infection already documented in minks
- AI used to predict how viral mutations might enable human infection
In a stark warning from virologists, new research has uncovered a potentially dangerous subgroup of bat viruses called HKU5 that could mutate into a form capable of infecting humans. Published in the journal Nature Communications, the study shows how close these viruses are to bridging the species gap, raising alarms about their pandemic potential.
“They may be only a small step away,” said Michael Letko, virologist at Washington State University. Letko’s team, in collaboration with Caltech and UNC, focused on merbecoviruses — a group of viruses under the same umbrella as the deadly Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). While most pose little threat, HKU5 viruses stood out for their disturbing proximity to human infectivity.
The team used lab-created virus-like particles to study how these viruses latch onto host cells. The mechanism of choice? The now-notorious ACE2 receptor — the same cellular gateway exploited by SARS-CoV-2. While HKU5 viruses currently bind efficiently to bat ACE2 receptors, they struggle with the human version. But researchers found that small mutations in the spike protein could unlock that barrier, especially in strains found in Japanese house bats.
Worryingly, one HKU5 variant has already jumped species, infecting minks in China. That spillover event proves that the virus is gaining the ability to cross biological borders — a known warning sign preceding previous pandemics.
Adding urgency to the findings, postdoctoral researcher Victoria Jefferson used AlphaFold 3, a powerful AI tool, to simulate the spike-ACE2 interaction. In mere minutes, the algorithm provided molecular-level insights into how the virus could evolve to infect humans — results that mirrored traditional lab studies that take months.
This technological leap could revolutionize how we identify high-risk viruses before they reach humans. It also shows how AI might assist in rapidly designing countermeasures such as vaccines or therapeutics tailored to block viral mutations in real time.
While there’s currently no evidence of human infections from HKU5 viruses, the research team emphasizes the importance of preemptive surveillance. With bat populations across Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Middle East harboring these viruses, global monitoring and preparedness are more critical than ever.
“These viruses are so closely related to MERS, so we have to be concerned if they ever infect humans,” Letko noted. Given MERS’s 34% fatality rate, the stakes could not be higher.
As our understanding of viral evolution accelerates through tools like AlphaFold and advanced genomic sequencing, the line between wildlife viruses and human outbreaks grows increasingly thin. Whether the next pandemic will arise from a lab or a bat cave may depend on how closely — and quickly — we watch the viral world evolve.
Source: Washington State University News
Enjoying our articles?
We don’t show ads — so you can focus entirely on the story, without pop-ups or distractions. We don’t do sponsored content either, because we want to stay objective and only write about what truly fascinates us. If you’d like to help us keep going — buy us a coffee. It’s a small gesture that means a lot. Click here – Thank You!
